Will tariffs slow the U.S. economy in 2026?

The U.S. economy has largely weathered historically high tariffs so far this year, but a new study says tariffs will hit Americans in 2026.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it expects the U.S. economy to grow 1.8% this year, and 1.5% next year. It mostly based its prediction for slower growth on tariff effects.

The organization estimated that the overall effective U.S. tariff rate on imports rose to 19.5% at the end of August from 15.4% in mid-May, reaching its highest level since 1933. Tariffs have yet to greatly hit the U.S. consumer, the organization said, because of companies using up inventories.

Yet many economists were wrong when the Trump tariffs were announced and most predicted a recession this year. “History tells us that free markets