The forecast path for Tropical Storm Melissa shows it meandering across the Caribbean Sea for the next several days, potentially strengthening to a major hurricane near Jamaica on Sunday Oct. 26.

With little to guide it, slow-moving Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea for at least the next couple of days, eventually powering up to major hurricane strength (Category 3+) as it does so.

A forecast released Oct. 22 said that Melissa will reach Category 3 strength of 120 mph by Sunday, Oct. 26. This would make Melissa the fourth major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

And as of Oct. 22, top computer forecast models had yet to reach a consensus on Melissa's next move, with some showing a sharp right turn into Hispaniola and others showing a slower, more westerly path into the western Caribbean.

"It goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast," the National Hurricane Center said Oct. 22.

"Melissa is going to slam on the brakes and meander in the central Caribbean for several days, with potential to become a strong hurricane," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza on his Substack "The Eyewall." "It will also be a tremendous rainmaker for somewhere, depending on exactly where it stalls out."

A slow crawl through the Caribbean

Over the next few days, there shouldn't be a whole lot to interfere with Melissa's organization: "In general, we should see slow, steady development," Lanza said.

The primary concern will be Melissa’s slow crawl through the central Caribbean as the storm spins aimlessly south of Hispaniola.

"Steering currents will largely collapse, leaving Melissa meandering for several days south of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, bringing the potential for a prolonged period of heavy rains, worsened by the steep mountainous terrain of the nearby islands, which also brings the threat of life-threatening mudslides and landslides," said WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry on a Substack post.

How much rain? "Parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba could pick up over 10 inches of total rainfall through next week," wrote Weather.com meteorologists Caitlin Kaiser and Jonathan Erdman in an online forecast. "Depending on the track, some bands or clusters of locally heavy rain are also possible in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and parts of the Bahamas."

Models don't agree on Melissa

Two of the more well-known models – familiar foes during winter storms – differ on the future path of Melissa, according to a Substack post from Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue:

"Into this weekend, we see that the (European model) ECMWF does NOT take Melissa across Hispaniola (as the American GFS continues to insist), but instead does a slow loop – nearly stationary next to Jamaica into early next week."

As the hurricane center notes, the model guidance "diverges significantly with some models showing a motion to the northeast … while the other solutions show a stall or a westward drift on the south side of a building ridge."

The majority of the models show Melissa remaining in the Caribbean Sea throughout the week and into the weekend, the hurricane center said.

"This has the potential to be a long, drawn-out affair lasting well into next week," said Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman in an online forecast.

'Monster' hurricane Melissa?

One solution from the European shows what Maue describes as a "monster" Hurricane Melissa spinning over the very warm western Caribbean before sprinting across eastern Cuba into the Atlantic.

Fortunately, the United States is still likely spared in this scenario. "Still not worrying about the East Coast — that would be 10 days down the road – and would require an extremely rare alignment or weather pattern to repeat a Sandy-like trough," Maue said.

Tropical Storm Melissa spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Forecasters perplexed by Tropical Storm Melissa's path

Reporting by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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