Scientists have developed a new method to predict eruptions at Mount Etna, an active volcano located on the Italian island of Sicily. Researchers from Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology are focusing on monitoring magma movement within the Earth's crust to determine when an eruption may occur. This research was detailed in a paper published in Science earlier this month.

The team is studying the b value, a parameter that indicates the ratio of low- to high-magnitude earthquakes. By analyzing changes in this b value, volcanologists can assess crustal stress and track the movement of magma as it rises toward the volcano's summit. The researchers created an updated statistical model using data from 2005 to 2024, which revealed a strong correlation between volcanic activity and the b value.

The findings suggest that variations in the b value can precede geochemical changes associated with magma ascent, such as the release of gases like sulfur and carbon dioxide, by several months. This advance warning could be crucial for communities near the volcano, allowing them to prepare for potential eruptions. "Our results suggest that b value monitoring could have anticipated volcanic crises," the researchers stated.

Mount Etna is closely monitored due to its location near the city of Catania and several smaller towns. Approximately 1 million people, or one-third of Sicily's population, reside on the slopes of the volcano. Etna, situated on Sicily's eastern coast, is known for its near-constant activity. Its eruptive history spans 500,000 years, with human documentation dating back 2,700 years.

One of the most significant eruptions occurred in 1669, when lava flows devastated the western suburbs of Catania. The most recent eruption took place in June, sending thick clouds of gas and molten rock up to 4 miles into the atmosphere. The ongoing research aims to enhance the understanding of volcanic behavior and improve safety measures for those living in the vicinity of Mount Etna.