A close observer of the economy might be tempted to ask, “What is going on?”

The stock market continues to do well (subject to day-to-day presidential musings) and GDP growth is strong, while nearly every other measure of economic activity has stagnated or is in deep decline. Why? I have a three-part answer.

First, tariffs continue to seesaw the U.S. economy.

Since President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day, manufacturing has lost 42,000 jobs nationwide. At the same time, manufacturing GDP rebounded from its first-quarter decline.

Most of that growth appears to be a result of accelerated production in advance of tariff price increases.

The strongest evidence for the “beat the tariff” economy comes from the enormous spike in imports by large manufacturing states. Indiana, the most manufac

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