(L-R) Virna Jandiroba (green shorts) fights Yan Xiaonan during UFC 314 at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

In a 5-round women's strawweight championship bout in the co-main event, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern meet Saturday at UFC 321 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The prelims begin at 10 a.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+ / FX, followed by the main card at 2 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 321: Jandiroba vs. Dern odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Jandiroba (22-3-0) | Dern (15-5-0)

Since a loss to Amanda Ribas via unanimous decision at UFC 267 in October 2021, Jandiroba has picked up 5 consecutive victories, including a unanimous-decision win over Yan Xiaonan at UFC 314 last time out (April 12). Jandiroba has gone the distance in 5 of her past 6 fights, too.

This is a rematch as these 2 fighters met at UFC 256 in December 2020 when Dern picked up a unanimous-decision victory over Jandiroba.

Dern posted a Round 3 submission victory over Ribas last time out in a fight night Jan. 11, her second straight victory after back-to-back losses to Jessica Andrade (November 2023) and Amanda Lemos (February 2024).

Jandiroba has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Dern has a solid 3.31-to-1.97 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Jandiroba is slightly more accurate at 59.77%, while Dern checks in at 53.14%. Jandiroba is much better on takedowns, too, posting a 2.37 to Dern's 0.89, while Jandiroba had a 33.33% takedown accuracy percentage. She also has a 1.81-to-1.19 submission average advantage over Dern.

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UFC 321: Jandiroba vs. Dern odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:58 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Jandiroba +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Dern -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Total rounds: 4.5 rounds (Over -145 | Under +110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -125 | No -110)

UFC 321: Jandiroba vs. Dern picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

JANDIROBA (+135) is a strong play as a slight underdog in this rematch fight.

It's almost been 5 years since these fighters met at UFC 256. Jandiroba has advantages in all of the categories except for significant strikes landed per minute, and she has the 1-inch reach advantage over Dern.

Take JANDIROBA BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+225) for the chance to more than double up. She has gone the distance in 5 of the past 6 fights, and she knows how to wow the judges and get the job done, winning her past 4 decisions.

Over/Under

Over 4.5 rounds (-145) is slightly pricey, but if you like the fight to go the distance, it isn't too bad of a bet if you'd like a little wiggle room in the event of a late Round 5 finish. As long as Over 4.5 rounds stays under -180 -- and there is no reason it shouldn't -- this is an OK play. However, YES (-125): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a little cheaper, and therefore a better value.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC 321: Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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