Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) scrambles to get open against Louisville Cardinals defensive back D'Angelo Hutchinson (21) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.

The No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers (6-1, 3-0 ACC) and North Carolina Tar Heels (2-4, 0-2) meet Saturday at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (ACC Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the Virginia vs. North Carolina odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Virginia continued its winning streak last Saturday, edging the Washington State Cougars 22-20 for its fifth straight victory. The Cavaliers failed to cover as heavy 15.5-point home favorites, while the Under (57) cashed. It was a tight contest statistically, with the Cougars outgaining Virginia 318-301. However, the Cavaliers’ defense sealed the win with 2 interceptions and a decisive safety with 2:41 remaining.

North Carolina dropped its third straight game last Saturday, falling 21-18 to the Cal Golden Bears. The Tar Heels did manage to cover as 7.5-point road underdogs with the Under (46.5) cashing. QB Gio Lopez struggled, completing just 54.3% (19-for-35) of his passes for 167 yards, 101 of which went to WR Kobe Paysour. Costly turnovers — including 2 in the fourth quarter — sealed UNC’s fate.

When these teams last met Oct. 26, 2024, in Charlottesville, the Tar Heels pulled off a decisive 41-14 victory as a +3.5 road underdog. Their dominant win came with the Under (59) cashing.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Virginia at North Carolina name odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Virginia -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | North Carolina +310 (bet $100 to win $310)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Virginia -10.5 (-115) | North Carolina +10.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Virginia at North Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

Virginia 31, North Carolina 17

Moneyline

PASS.

I like Virginia (-400) to keep their winning ways rolling into Chapel Hill, but I'm not betting 4 units to win 1 in return. I'll take my wager to the spread.

Against the spread

BET VIRGINIA -10.5 (-115).

UVA continues to find ways to win close games, already locking up bowl eligibility while climbing the AP Poll. Meanwhile, first-year UNC coach Bill Belichick is still searching for his first Power 4 victory — a reflection of a program that’s regressed fast.

Lopez has struggled to push the ball downfield, ranking last among qualified ACC passers with just 119.4 yards per game and 3 touchdowns in 5 starts. That’s a tough formula against a Virginia defense that thrives on pressure and turnovers.

The Cavaliers’ offense, led by Chandler Morris (1,607 passing yards, 11 TDs), has averaged 40 points per game, supported by one of the ACC’s best offensive lines — just 5 sacks allowed all season. Against a Tar Heels defense with an ACC-worst 6 sacks, Morris should have plenty of time to attack through the air.

UVA has covered 4 of its last 5 and has shown resilience even when starting slow. If Virginia scores early and forces UNC to abandon its run-first approach, the Cavaliers should control tempo and keep rolling. I’m taking Virginia to cover comfortably on the road.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 51.5 (-110).

North Carolina’s offense has struggled mightily, ranking last in the ACC in passing, total, and scoring offense. The Tar Heels haven’t scored more than 21 points against an FBS opponent this season and have just 18 against Power 4 competition. The Under is 2-0-1 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and has cashed in 4 of UNC’s last 5 games. Each of Virginia’s past 2 contests has also stayed below the total. With the Tar Heels ranking next-to-last in the ACC in time of possession, their slow pace should again favor a lower-scoring game.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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