Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

The Washington Commanders (3-4) and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) meet Monday in Week 8 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC / ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds around the Commanders vs. Chiefs odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Commanders had a rough afternoon in Week 7, falling 44-22 to the Dallas Cowboys as 1.5-point road underdogs, with the Over (55.5) cashing. Washington couldn’t get out of its own way — 2 turnovers, 11 penalties for 118 yards, and a defense that surrendered 409 total yards. Adding to the frustration, QB Jayden Daniels suffered a right hamstring injury on a strip-sack, which will cause him to miss Week 8.

The Chiefs dominated their AFC West rivals in Week 7, shutting out the Las Vegas Raiders 31-0 at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City comfortably covered as a 13.5-point favorite, while the Under 45 points hit. QB Patrick Mahomes delivered with 286 passing yards and 3 TDs, including 2 to WR Rashee Rice in his season debut following a 6-game suspension. The defense held the Raiders to just 95 total yards. The Chiefs have now scored 28 or more points in 4 straight games.

Kansas City leads the all-time series 10-1. They have won the last 8 meetings since 1992, the last 31-13 in 2021.

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Commanders at Chiefs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Commanders +525 (bet $100 to win $525) | Chiefs -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +11 (-110) | Chiefs -11 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 48 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Commanders at Chiefs key injuries

Commanders

QB Jayden Daniels (hamstring) out
K Matt Gay (back) questionable
DT Daron Payne (toe) questionable
TE Colson Yankoff (hamstring) out

Chiefs

LT Josh Simmons (non-injury related/personal) out
RG Trey Smith (back) doubtful

Commanders at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Chiefs 31, Commanders 14

Moneyline

PASS.

I just don't see any way that the Chiefs (-750) don't win this game going away which is why I'll take my wager to the spread.

Against the spread

Arrowhead at night just hits different — and I think we’re in for another classic Kansas City prime-time performance. Yes, the spread ballooned after Daniels was ruled out, jumping from Chiefs -5.5 to -11.5, but honestly? I still think the number favors Kansas City.

Washington comes in beat up and searching for answers. Without Daniels, they have to roll with QB Marcus Mariota, which basically means the playbook shrinks and they’re leaning on the run. That’s a problem against a Chiefs defense that’s allowing under 18 points per game and getting after quarterbacks with DT Chris Jones and DE George Karlaftis. I don’t see Washington keeping pace.

Meanwhile, Mahomes looks locked in again — 14 touchdowns to just 2 picks — and getting Rice back has opened up the passing game alongside TE Travis Kelce. Add in RB Isiah Pacheco running angry and that’s a ton for a defense that just got lit up for 44 by Dallas.

Kansas City has also been money in prime time at home under Andy Reid: 11-3 ATS in their last 14. Washington? Just 2 covers in their last 8 road games as dogs. Pretty big difference.

If the Chiefs get near 30 points — which they’ve done in 5 of their last 6 at Arrowhead — they’re covering this number. And with the Commanders missing their most important player, I don’t see them turning this into a grind-it-out battle.

I’ll ride the better QB, better defense, better head coach, and the loudest building in football.

BET CHIEFS -11.5 (-110).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 48 (-110).

Kansas City’s defense has been lights-out this season, giving up under 18 points per game, and I don’t see Washington doing a lot of damage with Mariota filling in and key receivers banged up. The Commanders will try to run the ball, chew clock, and keep Mahomes on the sideline — which is great if you’re betting the Under.

This total has gone Under in 2 of Washington’s last 3 games, 2 straight for the Chiefs, and the last matchup between these teams also stayed under the prjected total. If KC gets ahead early, they’ll just control the game and bleed the clock. Under 48 feels like the right call.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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