A sample of palladium (Pd) is displayed at the Laboratory of Physics and Material studies (LPEM) in Paris, France, June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier
A sample of platinum (Pt) is displayed at the Laboratory of Physics and Material studies (LPEM) in Paris, France, June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

By Anmol Choubey and Polina Devitt

(Reuters) -Analysts have sharply raised their price forecasts for platinum and palladium in 2026, citing tight mine supply, tariff uncertainty and rotation from investment demand for gold, as platinum nears its best yearly performance and palladium marks its best year since 2017.

Spot prices for platinum and its sister metal palladium are up about 76% and 56%, respectively, so far this year, as broader support from gold's record-breaking rally coincided with outflows to U.S. stocks.

"We continue to expect platinum prices to test higher highs and remain deeply undersupplied in 2026," said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.

The main factors for platinum were the potential launch of a futures contract in China, still-muted jewellery demand after Chinese fabricators increased their platinum stock, and outflows from platinum-backed exchange-traded funds helping to ease tight spot supply during periods of profit-taking, she added.

The median forecast from a survey of 30 analysts and traders was for platinum to average $1,550 a troy ounce in 2026, up from $1,272 predicted in a poll three months ago and an expected 2025 average price of $1,249.50. [PREC/POLL]

Uncertainty about U.S. import tariffs have been a driver for platinum group metals this year, although more clarity is expected from a U.S. probe into potential new tariffs on imports of critical minerals, which the market is awaiting this month.

Palladium has another layer of worries, which are likely to extend to 2026, due to calls in the U.S. to consider a tariff on imports from major producer Russia.

For palladium, the median 2026 forecast in the Reuters' poll was $1,262.50 an ounce, up from $1,100 in the previous poll and the 2025 expected average of $1,106.

Palladium prices had fallen for the previous four years on expectations that electric-vehicle takeup would reduce demand for the metal which is mainly used to clean exhausts in gasoline vehicles.

"Although there is some pushback in the uptake of electric vehicles, there is still a Damoclean sword hanging over this market," StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell said, referring to the possibility of the opposite still happening.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey and Polina Devitt; Editing by Bernadette Baum)