Next Sunday’s late-afternoon matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs promises another high-stakes clash between two of the NFL’s premier quarterbacks. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have met repeatedly in recent seasons, producing some of the most memorable games of the past decade. This time, the showdown shifts to Highmark Stadium, where the Bills are slight home favorites (-2.5) and carry a 59% win probability according to Dimers’ simulation model. Both teams are fighting for conference positioning as the second half of the season begins, setting the stage for what could be an AFC playoff preview.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET, with the total hovering around 48.5 points—a number that reflects two potent but battle-tested offenses. Dimers projects a 25–22 Buffalo vic

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