The rise of Reform UK has at times seemed to defy gravity. From winning four million votes at the general election last year to emerging as the largest party at this year’s local elections, they have broken through ceiling after ceiling. What’s more, as the only party regularly hitting 30 per cent in the polls, in an era of mass electoral fragmentation, Reform could secure a landslide election victory, as across the UK seven parties split the vote between them.

Is Reform’s rise unstoppable? Granted, we are still likely some three years out from another general election, but the contours of that vote do already seem to be coming into view, and could best be described as the Reform ‘seesaw’. On one end of that seesaw are the forces driving people toward Reform: public misery and disillusion

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