The combination of Hurricane Melissa’s strength, slow movement and Jamaica’s topography could make for a worst-case scenario as the powerful system strikes the island nation Tuesday.

Hurricane Melissa remained a Category 5 early Tuesday as its eye churned just 115 miles from Kingston, Jamaica’s capital and largest city. The hurricane was drifting to the north-northeast at 5 mph.

Inside Melissa’s eyewall, 175 mph winds were blowing across the Caribbean Sea. Soon, that push of wind will drive water and waves ashore, creating a potential storm surge of 9 to 13 feet.

As devastating as the wind and storm surge might be, the effects of heavy rain could be the worst outcome. Up to 30 inches of rain is possible for much of the island, with higher elevations potentially receiving up to 40 inches

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