A recent poll indicates that public support for Premier Danielle Smith and her United Conservative Party (UCP) has declined amid an ongoing teachers' strike in Alberta. The survey, conducted by Leger and published on Tuesday, reveals a growing pessimism among Albertans regarding the province's direction. Only 32 percent of respondents believe Alberta is on the right track, marking a five-point drop since May. Conversely, 61 percent feel the province is headed in the wrong direction, a significant increase of 10 points from the previous spring.

Leger’s report describes this as the most negative assessment of Alberta's trajectory so far in 2025, suggesting that optimism has waned in recent months. The poll also highlights a shift in perceptions of the province's main political parties and their leaders. Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi has surpassed Smith in favorability, receiving a rating of 43 percent, while Smith's approval has fallen to 38 percent, a six-point decrease since May. Nearly half of the respondents, 47 percent, reported that their opinion of Smith has worsened over the past six months.

Despite the decline in support, the poll suggests that if a provincial election were held today, the UCP would still lead with 44 percent of the vote among decided voters, compared to 39 percent for the NDP. However, support for the UCP has gradually decreased since the beginning of the year, while NDP support has increased, narrowing the gap between the two parties. Other parties, such as the Alberta Liberal Party, the Green Party, and the Alberta Party, have not gained significant traction, polling at nine, three, and two percent, respectively.

The poll surveyed 1,045 Alberta residents from October 10 to 12, using Leger’s online panel. Results were weighted to ensure a representative sample based on age, gender, region, and education. Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president, attributed the decline in Smith's and the UCP's popularity primarily to the teachers' strike, which began on October 6 after negotiations for a new collective agreement broke down.

The survey found that 98 percent of Albertans are aware of the strike, with 71 percent feeling well-informed about it. Public sentiment largely favors the teachers, with 60 percent supporting the strike and 41 percent expressing strong support. Enns noted, "I’d say the teachers’ strike has had a negative impact on the impressions of government and the party in power. The impression is the government hasn’t handled the situation very well, certainly in comparison to the union."

The poll also revealed that 36 percent of respondents believe teachers are managing the situation better than the government, while only 14 percent side with the government's response. Nearly half of the respondents, 49 percent, stated that the strike has negatively affected their opinion of Smith and the UCP, particularly among women and middle-aged voters.

Leger’s report concludes that the teachers' strike has transcended a simple labor dispute, becoming a significant political moment in Alberta. Teachers are viewed as responsible and credible, while the government faces increasing reputational challenges. Although the data collection occurred before the UCP introduced Bill 2, there was already speculation about potential back-to-work legislation, which may have influenced public perception during the polling period. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus three percent, 19 times out of 20.