The New South Wales Coalition faces a drop up to ten seats at next year’s state election as polling shows the coalition’s primary vote is slumping, as Labor draws support from its traditional voter base.

The Opposition’s primary vote has slipped by 5.4 per cent since the 2023 election, representing a 4.7 per cent swing to Labor, according to a poll commissioned by the Daily Telegraph.

Labor leads 59–41 on a two-party preferred basis.

NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman must prove his worth when parliament returns in November, as voters' support for his leadership also waned.

The DemosAU poll, with advisory firm Premier National, showed his party had fallen four points from just six months ago.

Labor’s support, 37 per cent, has remained stable since the election and rose four per cent

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