In a year when financial markets seemed unstoppable, gold’s resurgence has been one of the most intriguing stories. “Gold has been a surprisingly big winner,” writes NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran in his latest blog post.

Through October 24, 2025, gold prices have soared 57%, breaching the $4,000-an-ounce mark for the first time ever — an ascent that even seasoned investors find difficult to rationalise.

“If you believe that history is your best guide for the future and that mean reversion will win out,” Damodaran writes, “it is undeniable that gold is overpriced against almost every metric.”

When History Stops Being a Guide

Damodaran begins with the tension between the past and the present. Historically, gold’s price surges have followed raging inflation or deep crises.

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