Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws downfield during the third quarter against the New England Patriots at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and the Buffalo Bills (6-3) meet Sunday in Week 11 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds around the Buccaneers vs. Bills odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Buccaneers came up short at home in Week 10, falling 28-23 to the New England Patriots and failing to cover as 2.5-point favorites as the Over (48) cashed. QB Baker Mayfield delivered 273 yards and 3 TDs, and Tampa Bay’s rookie receivers shined—Emeka Egbuka posted 115 yards and a score, and Tez Johnson added 2 TD grabs.

The Bills suffered a disappointing Week 10 loss in Miami, falling 30-13 to the Dolphins. They failed to cover as 8-point road favorites as the Under (50) cashed. Buffalo actually outgained the Dolphins, but sabotaged itself with 3 turnovers. QB Josh Allen accounted for 2 of them—an interception and a fumble—despite throwing for 306 yards and 2 TDs. Adding to the frustration, TE Dalton Kincaid exited in the third quarter with a hamstring injury.

Buffalo won 24-18 in the last meeting in 2023, but Tampa Bay leads the all-time series 8-5.

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Buccaneers at Bills odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:56 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Buccaneers +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Bills -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Buccaneers +6 (-110) | Bills -6 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 47 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Buccaneers at Bills key injuries

Buccaneers

G Ben Bredeson (hamstring) out
WR Chris Godwin (fibula) out
RB Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) out
OLB Haason Reddick (ankle/knee) out
OLB Markees Watts (hand) out

Bills

CB Taron Johnson (groin) questionable
TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) out
DB Cam Lewis (calf) questionable
DT Phidarian Mathis (shoulder) out
DT T.J. Sanders (knee) questionable
LB Shaq Thompson (hamstring) questionable

Buccaneers at Bills picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 31, Buccaneers 28

Moneyline

PASS.

I see this game coming down to the last possession with a narrow Bills victory (-275), which is why I'll take my wager to the spread with the Buccaneers.

Against the spread

BET BUCCANEERS +6 (-110).

The Bills might still be treated like a contender, but their on-field product tells a different story. Buffalo hasn’t shown the consistency you expect from a playoff-caliber team, especially with Allen alternating brilliance and baffling stretches. He’s been held under 215 passing yards 5 times already, and this offense simply hasn’t shown the ability to bury inferior opponents.

Defensively, the issues are even harder to overlook. A championship-level unit doesn’t give up 317.8 yards per game, and certainly doesn’t allow 147.6 rushing yards per outing—the third-worst mark in the league. The Bills only seem to elevate their intensity against heavyweight opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs or Baltimore Ravens. Against everyone else, they’ve played down to the competition.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, keeps grinding despite a string of injuries. Mayfield has held the offense together, rookies Egbuka and Johnson have emerged as reliable weapons, and the Bucs continue to piece together a ground game with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. Even short-handed, they’re competitive—6 of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less.

These teams score a similar amount per game, and Tampa Bay’s ability to hang around makes this number too generous. The Buccaneers may not pull the outright upset in Orchard Park, but they’re more than capable of making Bills Mafia sweat.

Over/Under

BET OVER 47 (-110).

The Over is a strong play when Tampa Bay meets Buffalo. Two of their last three matchups have cleared the total, and both offenses enter in scoring form. These teams combine to average 51 points per game, with the Buccaneers putting up 23+ in six of their last eight and the Bills averaging 30.2 at home. Expect another high-scoring matchup.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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