OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority government is set for a critical test on Monday, November 17, as it faces a third and final confidence vote on its budget. The Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois have already announced their intention to vote against the fiscal plan, leaving the Liberals with limited options to secure the two additional votes needed for a majority in the House of Commons. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has stated she will not support the budget in its current form but is open to negotiations. Meanwhile, the seven New Democrats have yet to decide how they will vote, creating uncertainty about their collective stance.

All budgetary matters are considered confidence votes. If the budget fails, the minority Liberal government would lose the confidence of the House and would likely be expected to resign or seek the dissolution of Parliament, leading to an election. The significance of Monday's vote is underscored by the fact that ministers and opposition MPs are returning early from the international climate summit COP30 in Brazil to participate.

Despite the looming possibility of an early election, Carney appears unfazed. He plans to depart for a bilateral visit to the United Arab Emirates on November 18, followed by attendance at the G20 Summit in South Africa, returning on November 24.

As the vote approaches, several scenarios are being considered.

**NDP Voting Dynamics** The New Democrats have indicated they would use the break week around Remembrance Day to consult with constituents and stakeholders before deciding on their vote. They are currently divided between opposing the budget due to proposed cuts to the federal public service, supporting it because of specific measures, or abstaining altogether. Some NDP MPs, like Jenny Kwan, have ruled out abstaining, raising questions about whether the entire caucus will vote uniformly.

The budget includes provisions aimed at appealing to the NDP, such as funding for a Filipino community center in Metro Vancouver and over $250 million to enhance aerial firefighting capabilities. However, concerns remain about cuts to services for Indigenous peoples, which NDP MP Lori Idlout has described as already underfunded. Public service unions have criticized the planned cuts, arguing they will lead to reduced services for vulnerable Canadians. Larry Rousseau, executive vice-president of the Canadian Labour Congress, expressed expectations that the NDP would defend workers' rights in this context.

**Conservative Party's Position** Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made it clear that his caucus will vote unanimously against what he terms the "costly Carney credit card budget." However, it remains uncertain whether all 143 Conservative MPs will participate in the vote. In previous confidence votes, four Conservative MPs were notably absent, raising speculation about potential absences during the upcoming vote. While some MPs were on pre-approved travel, others, like Shannon Stubbs, have been on medical leave.

The outcome may hinge on the NDP's decision. If they vote against the budget, even a few Conservative absences could prevent an early election. Historical precedents exist where abstentions from opposition parties have allowed budgets to pass, but advancements in technology now allow MPs to vote remotely, reducing the likelihood of unexpected absences affecting the outcome.

**Potential for a Christmas Election** If opposition parties unite against the government, they could leverage their majority to vote down the budget. While political parties have been preparing for the possibility of an early election, there is no strong indication that Canadians will head to the polls during the holiday season. Although some MPs have joked about preparing election materials, the usual signs of an imminent election, such as logistical arrangements and security planning, have not been observed.

Mistakes can happen, as seen in 1979 when Joe Clark's Progressive Conservative government unexpectedly fell during a budget vote. This led to Pierre Trudeau forming a majority Liberal government after the 1980 election. As the budget vote approaches, all eyes will be on the decisions made by the NDP and the potential implications for the Liberal government.