The St. Louis Blues head north tonight for a tightly matched showdown with the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena, where the numbers suggest this one could go either way. Toronto enters with a slight statistical edge according to Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model , which gives the Maple Leafs a 52% chance of winning at home. Oddsmakers reflect just how narrow this matchup looks on paper, with both teams sitting near even money and the total set at 6 goals heading into puck drop at 7 p.m. EST.

Even with Toronto favored, the projections point to St. Louis keeping this one close, especially with the Blues holding a strong 69% chance to cover the +1.5 puck line. Offensive chances should be plentiful as well, with the Over 6 goals carrying a slight edge in the model. With William Nylander

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