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MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 265 main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker.
Arman Tsarukyan UFC Fight Night 265 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 22-8 MMA, 9-2 UFC
- Height: 5'7" Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72.5"
- Last fight: Decision win over Charles Oliveira (April 13, 2024)
- Camp: American Top Team/Khabarovsk MMA (Russia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + Regional MMA accolades
- + Master of Sport in MMA and wrestling
- + Pankration world title
- + 9 KO victories
- + 5 submission wins
- + 8 first-round finishes
- + KO Power
- + Aggressive pace and pressure
- + Diverse striking arsenal
- ^ Punctuates presence with kicks
- + Excellent wrestling
- ^ Defensively and offensively
- + Good transitional grappler
- ^ Rides and scrambles well
Dan Hooker UFC Fight Night 265 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 24-12 MMA, 14-8 UFC
- Height: 6'0" Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 75"
- Last fight: Decision win over Mateusz Gamrot (Aug. 17, 2024)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + Regional MMA titles
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
- + 11 KO victories
- + 7 submission wins
- + 12 first-round finishes
- + KO power
- + Solid feints and footwork
- + Works well off of lead hand
- + Accurate crosses and kicks
- + Dangerous knees and elbows
- +Improved wrestling
- ^ Defensively and offensively
- + Underrated grappler
- ^ Good scrambling and submission acumen
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker point of interest: Firefight in Qatar
The main event in Qatar features a showdown between ranked lightweights, Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker.
Tsarukyan, who grew up wrestling and playing hockey, continues to display a natural aptitude for the striking side of the sport.
The Armenian fighter has shown to strike well in combination, often punctuating his presence with hard kicks from his lead side. Tsarukyan also does a solid job of changing his levels, which helps make him a harder target to get a beat on.
When feeling in stride, Tsarukyan will unleash everything from spinning assaults to axe kicks, but arguably does his best work when keeping it simple and building off the jab. Against a multi-layered threat like Hooker, Tsarukyan will likely be working behind feints since he can’t afford any naked entries.
A muay Thai stylist who can stick and move off pressure, Dan Hooker wields a diverse arsenal of attacks.
Whether he’s fighting from orthodox or southpaw, the New Zealand native can strike well from either stance, both coming forward or off the counter.
Working nicely off of a long and well-placed jab, Hooker can offensively prod with effect or attach it to the end of combinations as a disruptive check to help dissuade counters. Often following up with his patented crosses and head kicks, the 35-year-old talent will continue to vary his tempo and attacks throughout the contest, attempting to build in pace and pressure.
Helping glue together Hooker’s offensive repertoire is his ability to effectively feint in space – something that I suspect he can thank Eugene Bareman and the City Kickboxing crew for. Nevertheless, despite Hooker’s noted technical improvements and inherent toughness, defense has not necessarily been his strong suit, making offense a potent, two-way street in this fight.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering the stylistic matchup between these two, no one should be surprised if Tsarukyan looks for takedowns early and often.
Tsarukyan, who is no slouch in the wrestling department, is not shy when it comes to mixing in takedowns. Whether he’s corralling opposition along the cage with strikes or looking to catch and counter kicks, Tsarukyan appears hard-wired to change phases.
Defensively, Tsarukyan shows a solid sense for sniffing out shots in the open, demonstrating quick hips and down-blocking grips in his defensive process.
From a scrambling perspective, Tsarukyan displays good positional awareness and never seems too busy to sneak in cheeky shots in transition and off of the breaks. That said, Hooker also does some of his best work in close quarters, as the former featherweight has demonstrated some underrated wrestling since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Perhaps it's his experience with muay Thai, but Hooker comports himself well in clinch scenarios, seldom being stuck against the fence for long before showing some type of ability to spin his opposition around, as well as occasionally looking for takedowns of his own.\
Improving his scrambling in recent years, Hooker shows a solid awareness of his hips and an ability to snatch backs in transit that has served him well. And when an opponent gets too overzealous in going for a takedown, Hooker puts his long arms to good use as he gets creative with his front-choke threats.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker odds
The oddsmakers and the public heavily favor the Armenian fighter, listing Tsarukyan -600 and Hooker +420 via FanDuel.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker prediction, pick
Even though the betting line is getting insultingly wide, I can’t disagree with who is favored in this spot.
Don’t get me wrong: Hooker has made a career out of being a live dog who will fight hard for his money, so seeing him score an upset club-and-sub off of a well-placed knee or left hook wouldn’t exactly be the most shocking result in the world.
However, despite both parties being incredibly live to hurt one another off of their left/lead side, I suspect that the wrestling ability of Tsarukyan will be the difference maker in this matchup.
Tsarukyan has also displayed solid submission defense when sober, and I expect him to be extra sharp in the grappling department given how hard he has been focusing on that skill set since we last saw him.
Unless Hooker can catch Tsarukyan dipping to his power side on the feet, then I see the fight being decided on the floor.
The official pick is for Tsarukyan to force a stoppage via strikes by the end of Round 2.
Prediction: Tsarukyan inside the distance
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker start time, how to watch
As the main event, Garcia and Onama are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 4:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker prediction: Upset looming at UFC Qatar?
Reporting by Dan Tom, MMA Junkie / MMA Junkie
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