AUSTIN, Texas — Get ready for a potentially milder-than-average winter, Central Texas. The official seasonal outlook for the 2025-2026 winter season (December, January and February) points toward a significant tilt in the odds for a warmer and drier-than-normal three-month period. This forecast is largely influenced by the presence of the La Niña climate pattern, which is the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

La Niña drives the forecast

Current climate models indicate that La Niña conditions are favored to persist through the winter months. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This oceanic pattern influences the jet stream, which in turn typically leads to a storm track that bypasses the southern U.

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