If the market doesn’t seem sure whether or not to expect a base interest rate cut next month, it’s not alone—members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) themselves may have little clue which way the vote is going to go.

In the run-up to this week, the mood was one of disappointment that the FOMC wouldn’t deliver a final cut for 2025, an action many analysts had priced in since this summer. A week ago, investors hedged their bets at a 50/50 likelihood of a base rate cut to 3.75 to 4%, from its current position at 4 to 4.25%.

But the tides changed quickly, based on both data and comments from members of the FOMC, and at the time of writing, CME’s FedWatch barometer places an 81% probability of a cut early next month.

A key part of the shift came after comments from the New York Fe

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