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Net migration to the UK has fallen to levels last seen before Brexit. The latest ONS figures show net migration reached just over 200,000 in the year ending in June. This marks a 78% decline over the past two years, from a peak of more than 900,000.

The Labour government will welcome this development. It has made bringing down net migration (the difference between the number of people entering the country and expected to stay long term, and the number leaving) one of its key pledges.

The government also recently announced a series of reforms to asylum and immigration with the aim of deterring people from coming to the UK. These include making refugee status temporary and requiring people to wait for 20 to 30 years in some cases before becoming eligible for permanent status – longer than any other European country.

As numbers fall and restrictions are implemented, are high public concerns about immigration also likely to come down, reducing pressure on the government? Not necessarily, for several reasons.

First, numbers will not necessarily stay this low for the long term. EU citizens are currently subtracting around 70,000 per year from the total net migration figure, because more are leaving than arriving.

This is unlikely to continue indefinitely. People from outside the EU may also push up net migration figures over the medium term. Fewer of these migrants have arrived recently, which is likely to mean fewer people departing the UK in the future and hence lower emigration.

Recent numbers might also be revised up at a later date. The ONS has raised concerns about the accuracy of data showing an unexpected decline in net migration of family migrants (close family members of British nationals and other migrants with settlement in the UK) that seems inconsistent with other data sources.

Even if numbers do remain around the 200,000 mark, it is difficult to know how this will affect public opinion. In the past, the salience of migration has tended to go up when numbers were higher, although the relationship is not always precise.

The public may not be aware that numbers have fallen, and those who are aware may not consider 200,000 to be particularly low. The sharp decline in net migration may also raise some concerns about why an increasing number of people choose to leave the UK, particularly if they are British nationals.

Second, asylum applications and unauthorised arrivals by small boat – the least popular and most salient forms of migration – have not declined. Opinion polling suggests that asylum is the category the public would most like to see reduced.

Asylum applications rose to an all-time high of 110,000 in the year ending September 30 2025. This was partially driven by a substantial rise in small boat arrivals to almost 46,000, close to the record seen in 2022.

There were also growing numbers of asylum claims from people who arrived to the country on legal visas, particularly from countries such as Pakistan, which was the top nationality among new asylum seekers.

The number of people living in asylum hotels – which the government promised to close by the end of this parliament – increased by 13% to 36,000, due to a rapidly growing appeals backlog and the lack of alternative accommodation.

The government will be hoping that numbers decline in the future due to the newly announced reforms to the asylum system which aim to deter arrivals, as well as the combined impact of increased enforcement and the returns deal with France. However, it is unclear if, and to what extent, the new measures will lead to fewer people claiming asylum. Any effect might take time to become visible.

Migration and the economy

Third, there are important trade-offs facing the government. A sharp decline in arrivals for work and study means that people claiming asylum now make up a significantly higher share of overall migration – 11% of total immigration into the UK, compared to 5% before the pandemic.

All things equal, this makes migration less beneficial to the economy, since asylum seekers require more support, and refugees are less likely to be employed and make fiscal contributions.

Read more: UK to overhaul asylum policy – will the new measures work?

The newly announced policies to keep refugees on temporary status for long periods of time may plausibly deter at least some people from coming. But they are also likely to make integration more difficult for those who remain in the UK, and give them less incentive to invest in their skills and social integration in the UK.

Essentially, all migration policies come with both costs and benefits. Public concerns become difficult to address if they stem from a desire to achieve goals that are sometimes contradictory, such as reducing net migration, keeping public services afloat, enforcing immigration rules and complying with international law.

Migration is hence likely to be a central political issue for the foreseeable future. Potential changes in numbers, ongoing problems in the asylum system and the inherent trade-offs in policy may all sustain public concern and create enduring challenges – something most UK governments in the last two decades have struggled to address.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Mihnea Cuibus, University of Oxford

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The Migration Observatory receives funding from the John Armitage Charitable Trust, the Barrow Cadbury Trust, the Esmée Fairbairn Foundation and the Paul Hamlyn Foundation, and has also received support from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).