The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District was the GOP’s to lose. Yet, it was still a close call – a possible signal that even reliable Republican voters are growing tired of President Donald Trump and the party.

Republican candidate and veteran Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic state lawmaker Aftyn Behn on Dec. 2 in the race to replace Republican Rep. Mark Green, who took a private sector job earlier this year.

Van Epps’ win in and of itself isn’t surprising – the gerrymandered district was supposed to be safely red – until you consider how close the race was. Behn, a progressive Democrat who has been compared to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, was within 10 percentage points of Van Epps when the election was called, making the race much closer than Van Epps and the Republican Party would have liked.

If Republicans can no longer count on coasting to victory in ruby red districts, they should absolutely be worried about what this means for the 2026 midterm elections.

Republicans are sweating even the reddest districts in Tennessee

For the past few weeks, it’s been clear that Republicans were worried about an upset in this race. Trump has held multiple telerallies for Van Epps and posted on X in support of the candidate. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, appeared on the campaign trail with Van Epps on the eve of the election.

“The whole world is watching,” Trump told supporters through Johnson’s cell phone on Dec. 1.

The money was another sign Republicans were sweating. While Behn outraised Van Epps, the majority of more than $6.5 million in outside spending was in favor of the Republican candidate. If this district were as safe as it was drawn to be, they wouldn’t need to do any campaigning whatsoever.

Yet it makes sense that they were worried – a survey from Emerson College Polling/The Hill showed Behn trailing behind Van Epps within the margin of error, signaling the possibility of an upset in the days before the election.

The Democrats pulled big names, like former Vice Presidents Kamala Harris and Al Gore, to campaign for Behn. And Behn ran on an affordability platform that appealed to all voters feeling the strain of this economy, not just on progressive issues that would rile up the furthest left members of the party.

GOP won the race in Tennessee, but Democrats have won major ground

At the end of the day, this defeat doesn’t define the Democrats ahead of next year's elections. It doesn’t negate the wins they had in races in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia a month ago, nor do those wins mean that a blue wave is sure to hit in 2026.

If anything, this is a sign that even staunch Republicans are disappointed with the way the country’s going. The federal government is in disarray, the economy is in flux and the president is spending his time in office pardoning drug traffickers and deflecting from his connections to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Trump clearly doesn’t know that the average American is hurting – or what wins elections for either party these days. On Dec. 2, he told Cabinet members that “the word affordability is a con job by the Democrats.” It’s ironic, given that both Behn and Van Epps campaigned on affordability.

Campaign messaging isn’t the only thing Democrats should focus on ahead of 2026. They must be timely; instead of beginning their campaigns in the 11th hour, as they did with Behn, they need to be organizing their base now for the midterms.

This election was still a loss for Democrats, but it wasn’t the blowout that it should have been. Republicans should take this as a sign that their actions in Washington are not being well-received, even in the reddest parts of the country.

Follow USA TODAY columnist Sara Pequeño on X, formerly Twitter: @sara__pequeno

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tennessee's special election shows why GOP should be worried | Opinion

Reporting by Sara Pequeño, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect