Shoppers shop at a department store in Bangkok, Thailand, May 31, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha
The skyline with twilight is photographed during sunset in Bangkok, Thailand, May 15, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

By Thanadech Staporncharnchai and Orathai Sriring

BANGKOK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Thailand's annual headline inflation rate was negative for an eighth month in November, driven by falling energy prices and government support measures, but the commerce ministry said on Wednesday it expected consumer prices to rise slightly next year.

The headline consumer price index fell 0.49% in November from a year earlier, following a drop of 0.76% in October. The ministry said it expected headline inflation for 2025 would come in between negative 0.15% and negative 0.2%, the first full-year negative reading in five years.

The core CPI reading rose an annual 0.66% in November. The ministry has said previously that negative CPI readings were not a signal of deflation given the core CPI was still positive.

Prices could begin rising next year, when the inflation rate was expected to be in a range of 0% to 1%, Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a press conference.

"Agricultural product prices are still rising, which may result in positive inflation in the first quarter of next year," he said.

Over the first 11 months of 2025, the average annual headline rate was negative 0.12%, while the core CPI was up 0.86%, the ministry said, adding headline CPI was expected to fall again in December.

FLOODS TO HIT GROWTH

Separately, a leading business group said while it expected the economy to grow 2% this year, driven by an expected 10% surge in exports, it saw challenges facing industry including a strong baht , U.S. tariffs, and competition from imports.

"Our export competitiveness is facing problems, and it (the baht) is severely impacting tourism. A significant number of tourists have disappeared," Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, told reporters.

The baht has gained 7.6% against the dollar so far this year to be Asia's second-best-performing currency, and Kriengkrai said that was affecting exports and tourism.

The ministry's Nantapong said there would be little impact on inflation from severe flooding in parts of the country's south, while the FTI said the disaster would trim economic growth this year and next.

The industry group estimated income losses of 20 billion to 30 billion baht ($630 million to $940 million) this month, equivalent to 0.1% to 0.2% of GDP, with further losses of around 90 billion baht seen in 2026. The flood damage will require extensive repairs and rehabilitation that are estimated in the hundreds of billions of baht, it said.

Economists expect the central bank to cut interest rates at a policy review on December 17, after the Bank of Thailand held its key rate steady at 1.50% in October. November was the ninth consecutive month that inflation has come in below the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%.

On Monday, Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said he saw room to lower rates, but added such a move had only a limited impact on an economy facing structural problems.

($1 = 31.8300 baht)

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Thanadech Staporncharnchai, Writing by Chayut Setboonsarng; Editing by John Mair)