NFL QB Advanced Stats after Week 13
Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass during the first quarter against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Harold Landry III (2) sacks New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart (6) during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Drake Maye is the starting quarterback for the team with the best record in the NFL. It shouldn't be too surprising that he's the MVP frontrunner through 13 weeks of the 2025 season.

But it feels that way, at least a little.

Maye has been the engine behind the league's most dramatic turnaround. 2024's putrid record led to a soft schedule, but the second-year quarterback isn't merely squeaking past overmatched opponents. He's thriving with big throws downfield and creating space with scrambles from the pocket. His 104.4 passer rating ranks fourth in the NFL. His 8.8 yards per attempt rank second. His 9.2 completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is the best among starting quarterbacks.

Whoops, turns out those numbers are *just* on the snaps when he's under pressure.

Maye's accuracy, escapeability and processing power have made him the NFL's top quarterback, at least statistically, with five weeks left in the regular season. Who comes next -- and how close are they?

The data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through 11-plus games. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.

Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a graph of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 208 plays) that looks like this:

Break that into tiers using RBSDM.com's outstanding and helpful plotting software, and it looks like this:

Let's take a look at what the number say -- and what they got right and wrong as the playoff push begins.

Tier I: Your new MVP frontrunner?

1. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.204 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.189

You can make the case for Maye's composite to be the only one in this top tier. But Love marked the beginning of Toyotathon with four touchdown passes and a road win over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. History suggests his number is gonna go up over the next month

Tier II: Very, very good.

3. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks: 0.173 EPA+CPOE composite

4. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.156

5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.153

6. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.153

Darnold continues to slip after latching on to first place a few weeks earlier. Allen continues to be undervalued given how little receiving help he has around him.

Prescott may be 2025's most interesting quarterback now that an improved defense has added more meaning to his booming downfield game. The Cowboys are 6-1-1 when he throws multiple touchdown passes and 0-4 when he's limited to one or fewer.

Tier III: Right where we expected Daniel Jones, Mac Jones and Marcus Mariota to be

7. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 0.142 EPA+CPOE composite

8. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.141

9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.128

10. Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers: 0.127

11. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.121

12. Marcus Mariota, Washington Commanders: 0.115

13. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.113

Stafford's slow march up the rankings was derailed on a rainy day in Charlotte. His three-turnover day managed to keep him out of the upper echelon and drop him behind Maye in the MVP odds. Jones and Goff have slipped back from MVP consideration as their weak play has been commensurate with their teams fading in the playoff race.

Mariota and Jones have made themselves lots of money with their play as elevated backups. Probably not enough to be considered some team's 2026 starter (well, maybe the Steelers), but some decent cash nonetheless.

Tier IV: Guys getting the crap beaten out of them

14. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.104 EPA+CPOE composite

15. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals: 0.1

16. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants: 0.098

17. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.093

Jackson isn't playing like himself and dodging injury questions, which seems to confirm the idea he's playing hurt but gutting it out because even a compromised quarterback can win the AFC North this year. Dart's gonna keep running face-first into the concussion protocol and doesn't care who knows it.

Herbert's quest to finish 2025 without either of his starting tackles just resulted in hand surgery (on his left side, fortunately). The football gods hate the Chargers so, so much.

Tier V: What are Bo Nix and Bryce Young?

18. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.075 EPA+CPOE composite

19. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.067

20. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.063

21. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.063

22. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.061

23. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: 0.06

24. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 0.06

25. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.058

26. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.058

Nix and Young are the headliners here, two young quarterbacks piloting their teams toward the playoffs despite wildly inconsistent games. Young has had an EPA of 10 points or higher in two of his last four games and one of -10 points or lower in the other two. Nix has the capacity to make incredible drive-saving throws and the ability to straight-up blank defenders he's staring directly at.

Daniels gets a pass because of the injuries that derailed his rookie of the year follow-up. Mayfield rebounded after a brutal stretch on the schedule left Tampa in danger of ceding the NFC South. The rest of the guys on this list may have to hope for revivals with new teams in 2026 or 2027.

Tier VI: Undervaluing the play of two different division leaders

27. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.043 EPA+CPOE composite

28. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.033

29. Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.025

30. Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.025

31. Justin Fields, New York Jets: 0.023

Lawrence's advanced stats haven't been great lately, but there's no denying the professional route running and sure hands of Jakobi Meyers have made a significant impact on his offense. Williams completed less than half his passes on Black Friday, but still rose up to deliver a game-sealing touchdown to Colston Loveland when it mattered most. They'll be fine. Well, Williams at least.

Tier VII: It'll get better. Maybe.

32. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 0.003 EPA+CPOE composite

33. Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns: -0.017

Ward crashed into the positives this week, though it happened in an abject mess of a game against the Jaguars. Dillon's -0.017 is better than Shedeur Sanders' -0.035, which is worst in the NFL among 48 quarterbacks to play at least 50 snaps this season.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL QB rankings Week 14: Drake Maye gets the stratosphere to himself

Reporting by Christian D'Andrea, For The Win / For The Win

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect