I don’t know for certain who will win North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race next year — and neither do you.

The likely Democratic nominee, Roy Cooper, has never lost a primary or general election. He’s won statewide office six times, four terms as attorney general and two as governor, plus a series of legislative contests in the late 1980s and 1990s. But these were state races, not federal ones. When sending senators or representatives to Washington, voters prioritize different issues and are more likely to stick with their party preferences. And Cooper’s likely Republican opponent, Michael Whatley, chairs the Republican National Committee. He’ll be well-funded. Cooper is favored at the moment, I think, but hardly a shoo-in.

Moreover, none of us knows for certain which way the midterm breeze

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