Erin’s Possible Paths: Projections Show Where Storm Could Go As It Nears Hurricane Strength

By Joe Lombardi From Daily Voice

A strengthening tropical storm in the Atlantic is capturing attention, and for good reason.

"Erin is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane by the weekend, prompting heightened alerts across the Caribbean and along the US East Coast," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “At this point in the hurricane season, everyone needs to be prepared.

"Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up, review your safety plans and evacuation routes, and check your insurance coverage. The climatological peak of hurricane season is just four weeks away.”

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. advisory on Tuesday, Aug. 12, Erin’s exact impacts remain uncertain, but residents in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico are urged to closely monitor its progress in the coming days.

AccuWeather experts warn that Erin’s path will reach a critical “fork in the road” by Sunday, Aug. 17 into Monday, Aug. 18 with two main scenarios ahead. (See the first image above.)

The current project path for Erin through Tuesday, Aug. 19.

AccuWeather

One possible route sends Erin northward, reducing the risk of a US landfall. The other, a more southern track, could bring the storm dangerously close to the East Coast, raising the potential for landfall and more significant impacts.

“The strength and positioning of the Bermuda High, a dip in the jet stream over the US, and a cold front pushing off the East Coast are expected to be the pivotal factors that will steer Erin over the weekend into next week,” DaSilva said.

Regardless of its precise path, Erin is expected to bring gusty winds of 40 to 60 mph, and possibly up to 80 mph in some areas, to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands this weekend. Some isolated areas could see as much as 7 inches, raising concerns for flash flooding and power outages.

Coastal communities from Florida to Maine are also on alert for rough surf and dangerous rip currents starting this weekend, even if Erin remains offshore.

Beachgoers in Bermuda, the Bahamas, and along the Atlantic coast are advised to exercise extreme caution, as hazardous conditions and beach erosion are likely.