As the 2026 review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) approaches, trade policy expert Laura Dawson highlights both risks and opportunities for Canada. Dawson, who previously directed the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center and now leads the Canada-U.S. Future Borders Coalition, emphasizes the importance of focusing on future growth areas rather than getting bogged down by longstanding trade irritants.

Dawson notes that while issues like dairy, automotive rules, and intellectual property are significant, they do not represent the entirety of Canada’s trade interests. "If your livelihood is outside of these sectors, then you are not really represented in these negotiations," she said. She advocates for a greater emphasis on the expanding services trade, particularly in digital services and technology.

In preparing for negotiations, Dawson expresses confidence in the skills of Canadian negotiators, who have historically performed well. However, she raises concerns about their readiness to address the current political climate under President Trump. "The last consultation for this negotiation took place last summer, before the election of Donald Trump. Obviously, things have really changed since then," she said. Dawson stresses the need for comprehensive consultations across Canada to better understand the current landscape.

Dawson identifies key areas that President Trump may target during the review, particularly sectors affected by Section 232 tariffs, including steel, aluminum, and dairy. She anticipates a refined list of U.S. demands from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) soon.

Canada, according to Dawson, should focus on improving non-tariff barriers and enhancing regulatory cooperation. She points out that while the agreement has evolved since 1989, there are still many areas for potential improvement. "Thousands of things could be looked at within the non-regulatory cooperation, non-tariff barriers area," she said.

Dawson also reflects on lessons learned from previous negotiations, emphasizing the importance of Canada remaining engaged in discussions. She recalls a time when Canada fell behind as the U.S. and Mexico pursued a side agreement. "Canada has to stay at the table and it has to convince the United States that it’s serious about being at these negotiations," she stated.

Regarding recent diplomatic efforts between Canada and Mexico, Dawson believes that strengthening ties is beneficial. She argues that while Canada and Mexico have different economic interests, collaborating can enhance their positions. "I think it makes a lot of sense for Canada to be engaging with Mexico as a business and economic partner," she said.

Dawson is optimistic about the current leadership under Prime Minister Mark Carney, noting that effective management of U.S.-Canada relations is crucial. She believes that while high-level leaders initiate negotiations, the detailed work is often handled by lower-level diplomats and sector representatives.

Concerns about potential changes in U.S. trade policy under the current administration are present, but Dawson does not see them as a significant threat. She believes that the USTR is still operating within established legal frameworks.

The rise of protectionism and trade tensions with China, according to Dawson, have shifted the focus of negotiations. "President Trump has really turned that on its head and said, ‘No, that is not an inevitable trajectory,’" she explained. This shift has prompted countries to reassess their national economic interests and reconsider policies that were previously deemed outdated.

As the CUSMA review approaches, Dawson’s insights underscore the complexities of trade negotiations and the need for Canada to adapt to a changing landscape.