Democrat Catelin Drey won a special election for the Iowa Senate, breaking Republicans' supermajority and giving Democrats hope that they can make gains in 2026.

But experts say it can be difficult to draw conclusions from special election results, when turnout is lower and members of one party might be more motivated to vote than another.

"They’re not necessarily predictive and they probably are skewed by Democrats just having better turnout patterns in these races," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Democrats in Iowa and across the country have been trumpeting the news of Catelin Drey’s special election victory to the state Senate, arguing it’s a clear sign that red-state voters are ready for a change from Republican control.

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Ri

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