Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party have enjoyed a favorable political climate, often referred to as a honeymoon period. This phase typically lasts a few months to a year, during which public opinion tends to favor the ruling party. However, signs indicate that Carney's honeymoon may be nearing its end.

A recent poll from Abacus Data, conducted between August 15 and 19, reveals that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has gained a slight edge in national vote intention. The Conservatives are now at 41 percent, just ahead of the Liberals at 39 percent. Other parties trail significantly, with the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloc Québécois each at 7 percent, while the Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada are at 2 percent.

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, described this shift as “modest but meaningful.” Several factors may have contributed to this change. One possibility is a decrease in the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump as a political issue, with only 38 percent of respondents considering him a significant factor, down from 44 percent earlier this summer. This decline suggests that Carney can no longer rely on Trump and tariffs as key issues that benefited his April 28 election victory.

Additionally, there is a growing negative sentiment regarding the direction of Canada. While 35 percent of respondents believe the country is on the right track, the number of Canadians who feel it is on the wrong track has risen to 47 percent. The Liberal government’s approval rating has also dipped to 49 percent, falling below the 50 percent mark for the first time since March.

Coletto noted that these figures indicate a gradual softening of support for the Liberals, likely due to concerns over the cost of living and ongoing frustrations related to housing. In terms of issue ownership, the Conservatives have taken the lead over the Liberals in handling key issues such as the cost of living (39 to 27 percent), the economy (45 to 34 percent), and immigration (56 to 15 percent). The Liberals still maintain an advantage on issues like climate change (37 to 9 percent) and managing relations with Trump (56 to 21 percent), although fewer respondents now consider Trump a top issue.

Other polls, such as one from the Angus Reid Institute conducted from August 15 to 18, show that Poilievre has a low approval rating among certain demographics. Only 35 percent of respondents believe he shares their views, and 37 percent feel he understands the issues important to them. Additionally, 50 percent of those surveyed expressed that they would be ashamed to call Poilievre Prime Minister, an increase from 40 percent in 2023.

While the Angus Reid poll did not provide a clear trend regarding Conservative popularity, it highlighted the challenges modern Conservative leaders face in connecting with voters, particularly women. The use of emotionally charged language in polling can significantly influence public perception and responses.