Updated at 8:45 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

The tropical disturbance we've been tracking – officially Invest 98L – is on the cusp of becoming Tropical Storm Melissa. The system already has sufficient winds, about 45 mph, and it’s finally showing signs of a closed circulation.

Hostile upper-level winds are still pushing dry air into the system and tilting the vortex toward the east, but they have let up enough for the circulation to establish itself. The system has slowed its forward speed, which is also helping it stand up straight. The closed circulation is required for a system to be designated a tropical storm because a system can’t intensify without accomplishing that step first.

The atmospheric pattern ahead is forecast to soon become supportive of further development. The bi

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