Despite widespread economic concern, the National Retail Federation’s holiday forecast is bright.

The retail trade organization said Thursday that retail sales will surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. For the November and December period, sales are predicted to grow between 3.7 and 4.2 percent over last year’s levels. That would get the spending tally to between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion this year, versus last year’s holiday sales gain of 4.3 percent over 2023 levels to reach $976.1 billion.

Those projections are better than Deloitte’s forecast for sales growth of just 2.9 to 3.4 percent — as well as the PwC projection for spending to fall by 5 percent from 2024 levels.

In a press briefing, NRF president and chief executive officer Matthew Shay said: “We

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