The Halifax International Security Forum witnessed significant turmoil over the weekend, particularly regarding a leaked 28-point peace plan for the Ukraine war. This plan has been criticized as more of a set of demands from Russia than a genuine peace proposal. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth had previously barred Pentagon officials from attending the conference, but a bipartisan group of U.S. senators, led by Jeanne Shaheen and Mike Rounds, participated in the discussions.

On Saturday evening, following a briefing from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Senator Rounds clarified that the 28-point plan was not an official U.S. proposal, stating, "It was leaked." By Sunday morning, Rubio, who was on his way to urgent talks with European and Ukrainian leaders in Geneva, appeared to shift the U.S. stance. He described the plan as "a strong framework for ongoing negotiations" in a post on social media.

As of Monday, a new 19-point proposal emerged from the meetings led by Rubio, aimed at addressing some of the most sensitive political issues. Despite the ongoing diplomatic confusion, this could signal the beginning of a new phase in negotiations to resolve a conflict that escalated into full-scale war in February 2022, following eight years of proxy fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The original 28-point plan included language that reflected Russian perspectives on the conflict. For instance, one point asserted that "all ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled," while another referenced "Nazi ideology," echoing claims made by Russia to justify its military actions. These points highlight Russia's concerns about Ukraine's potential alignment with Western security structures, including NATO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long viewed Ukraine as part of Russia's sphere of influence, asserting that Ukrainians and Russians are essentially the same people. This belief underscores the challenges of reaching a lasting resolution. Experts suggest that any agreement reached may only serve as a temporary cessation of hostilities, particularly as long as Putin remains in power.

The ongoing conflict has severely impacted Ukraine's military capabilities. The country is experiencing significant personnel losses, which it cannot sustain indefinitely. While Western nations have provided military support, they have not deployed troops to assist Ukraine directly. The demographic challenges in Ukraine are also concerning, with many young men leaving the country after draft rules were relaxed.

On the other hand, Russia faces its own economic difficulties, which could affect its war efforts. Reports indicate that Russia's economy is growing at a sluggish rate, with high interest rates and a planned increase in value-added tax. Additionally, the country’s oil-dependent economy is under pressure, with oil prices remaining low and concerns about a potential supply glut.

As the conflict approaches its fifth year, both sides may find themselves at a point where negotiation becomes necessary. However, Russia's goals of fully subjugating Ukraine remain unchanged, suggesting that any resolution may only be a temporary pause in hostilities. The geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, and the implications of these developments will be closely monitored by both sides as they navigate the complexities of the ongoing war.