WASHINGTON, D.C. — Alberta's profile in the United States has risen significantly this year, fueled by the Edmonton Oilers' Stanley Cup run, Prime Minister Mark Carney's connections to the province, and Premier Danielle Smith's frequent appearances on Fox News. This increased visibility has sparked discussions in Alberta about the potential for independence and what that relationship might look like with the U.S. and the world.

President Donald Trump's comments about Canada potentially becoming the 51st state have stirred nationalistic sentiments in Canada, providing momentum for the Liberal Party ahead of the spring elections. In response, Alberta's separatist movement, long frustrated by perceived neglect from Ottawa, particularly under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is gaining traction and pushing for a referendum on sovereignty.

Separatists advocate for a future with lower taxes, fewer regulations, and full control over areas such as policing, immigration, and trade. They argue that Alberta could negotiate more effectively with the U.S. without interference from the Canadian government. In April, leaders from the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), a separatist group, visited Washington to discuss their views with the Trump administration. APP leader Dennis Modry, a retired heart surgeon, stated, "We had a discussion about Alberta sovereignty, and when we walked into the boardroom, the very first comment was that the U.S. administration is fully in support of Alberta becoming a sovereign country."

However, the APP's recent application to halt a special court review of its proposed referendum question was rejected, meaning the review will proceed. Alberta's chief electoral officer requested this review to assess the constitutionality of the referendum. The APP contends that the review is premature since it has not yet gathered the necessary signatures. Meanwhile, the Republican Party of Alberta, another separatist group, is calling for the provincial government to schedule a referendum without delay. Anti-separation advocates are also mobilizing, aiming to collect around 300,000 signatures against independence by the end of October.

The independence movement has gained momentum, with the Republican Party of Alberta reporting a tripling of its membership to 25,000 since Carney's election. Some leaders within the movement emphasize the importance of international alliances, particularly with the U.S. Alberta's resource-rich landscape and conservative, pro-oil stance align with Trump's agenda to roll back net-zero emissions efforts.

Modry's APP met with high-ranking officials in the U.S. administration in April, although he declined to disclose specific names. They presented a document outlining the benefits of Alberta's sovereignty to the U.S. and expressed confidence that the U.S. would support their cause. Modry noted that the U.S. team inquired about how they could assist, but he clarified that the APP was not making specific requests.

Not all separatist leaders agree with this approach. Cameron Davies, president of the Republican Party of Alberta, stated he has not contacted the White House and believes such outreach would be "improper" until after a vote. He emphasized that any future international outreach would occur only after Alberta achieves independence.

Analysts express skepticism about U.S. involvement in Alberta's separatist movement. Andrew Hale, a senior policy analyst, remarked, "I really don’t see a situation whereby the United States would interfere in another country’s affairs like that." He suggested that attempts to support Alberta's independence could backfire, potentially increasing Canadian unity instead.

The push for an independence referendum is not unexpected. Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, noted that many Albertans feel their voices are not being heard by Ottawa. Complaints include limited provincial powers and perceived unequal treatment. Davidson pointed out that grievances date back to Alberta's creation in 1905, with leaders claiming that momentum for independence has been building for decades.

Smith has acknowledged the growing independence movement and indicated support for a citizen-led petition for a referendum. She stated, "I believe in Alberta sovereignty within a united Canada," but also recognized the need for a citizen initiative process.

Despite potential legal challenges, Davies remains optimistic. He stated, "At any time, a referendum can be conducted, and so what we’ve been consistently calling for is the UCP to schedule a referendum on Alberta’s independence."

Polling indicates a rising number of Albertans favor independence compared to 2021, though still below a majority. Modry reported polling showing support around 48 percent, while Davies noted fluctuations between 38 and 42 percent. Both leaders believe that a campaign leading up to a referendum could increase support.

If a referendum occurs next spring, Davies' party would advocate for Alberta to reclaim powers in areas like immigration and taxation. He suggested that any pushback from Ottawa could further galvanize support for independence.

Davies and Modry envision a future where Alberta and the U.S. pursue tariff-free trade agreements post-independence. They believe Alberta could engage in trade with countries like Japan and South Korea, promoting its energy, mining, forestry, and agriculture sectors without federal interference.