A few of the Great Lakes are near record warmth , while the other Great Lakes are at least much warmer than average. But will all this warm water cause heavy lake-effect snow to develop this winter?

A common thought among snow-experienced Michiganders is warm Great Lakes eventually lead to heavy lake-effect snow.

The thought is a good one, but not always true.

Heavy lake-effect snow is produced by a large temperature difference between the Great Lakes’ water temperatures and much colder air aloft at 5,000 feet to 10,000 feet up. So having warm Great Lakes’ water is the first step to heavy lake-effect snow.

But remember that the warm Great Lakes now would have to stay warmer than normal going into early winter. How do the Great Lakes stay warmer than normal into early winter? We need

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