The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an August update to its 2025 hurricane season outlook, slightly lowering its prediction for how many storms to expect.

However, the forecast still calls for this year to have an above-average season, and conditions are aligning for more tropical activity as we enter the peak hurricane period.

On Thursday, NOAA said it adjusted the range of named storms from 13 to 19 down to 13 to 18. There have been four named storms so far this year and no hurricanes.

It similarly adjusted the number of hurricanes down to five to nine overall, and lowered the low end of major hurricane numbers by one, to two to five.

The May forecast predicted there was a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season. That probability has been lowered to 50%.

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